Newsletter - November 2026

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Spotlight: Historic-Strength El Niño 2026–2027 - What It Could Mean for San Diego’s Birds

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a climate pattern that develops when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal, changing atmospheric circulation and influencing weather around the world. In Southern California, El Niño often increases the likelihood of a wetter winter, particularly during the heart of the rainy season.

Every El Niño is different. Its effects depend on its strength, timing, and how the atmosphere responds. A strong event raises the odds of certain weather patterns, but it cannot guarantee how much rain San Diego will receive or exactly when storms will arrive.

The 2026–2027 El Niño: A Potential Super El Niño

As of October 2026, El Niño is continuing to strengthen and could become one of the strongest events recorded since modern measurements began in 1950. NOAA's October 8 outlook indicates that a strong-to-very-strong El Niño is likely to persist through winter 2026–2027, with more than an 83% probability of conditions remaining at that strength through January–March 2027.

Some scientists and news outlets use the informal term “Super El Niño” to describe exceptionally strong events. Although this is not an official NOAA classification, the possibility of a historic-strength El Niño has raised interest in what the coming winter could bring to Southern California.

NOAA's October 15 winter outlook favors wetter-than-average conditions across the southern United States, including Southern California.

For San Diego, that could mean more opportunities for substantial winter storms, heavy rainfall, strong winds, flooding, and coastal erosion. However, even an exceptionally strong El Niño does not guarantee an unusually wet winter. The timing, intensity, and location of individual storms remain uncertain.

For our local birds, the consequences could extend well beyond a few wet days. Changes in rainfall, vegetation, insects, ocean temperatures, and food availability can affect where birds forage, how they behave, and how successfully they survive and reproduce.

How Could El Niño Affect San Diego’s Birds?

More Rain Can Mean More Food on Land

After a dry summer and fall, winter rain can trigger new plant growth across San Diego's coastal sage scrub, chaparral, grasslands, and gardens. With suitable temperatures and enough moisture, plants may produce fresh leaves, flowers, seeds, and fruit. These changes can benefit birds that eat seeds, berries, and other plant material.

Rain can also support increases in insects and other invertebrates as vegetation grows. That can be especially valuable for insect-eating birds, including Black Phoebes, Bushtits, warblers, and many other species that depend on insects for energy.

The benefits are not automatic. Insects may be difficult to catch during prolonged downpours, and a storm can temporarily interrupt feeding. Heavy rainfall can also damage flowers, wash away food, flood low-lying foraging areas, and disturb nests. The timing of rain matters: a gentle, well-spaced rainy season can support food production, while intense storms can create short-term hardships.

Seeds, Berries, and Backyard Foraging

Many familiar San Diego birds, including California Towhees, California Scrub-Jays, House Finches, and Lesser Goldfinches, use a combination of seeds, fruit, and other natural foods.

Winter moisture may encourage new growth and influence the availability of these resources, although the response will vary by plant species and location. Some birds may spend more time searching in leaf litter or on the ground after rain, where damp soil can make certain invertebrates easier to find. Others may shift toward sheltered shrubs and trees when wind and rain make exposed feeding areas less attractive.

Birds may also visit backyard feeders more frequently during a storm if natural foods are temporarily harder to reach. A sudden increase in feeder traffic does not necessarily mean that natural food has disappeared; it may simply reflect a temporary change in where birds can safely feed.

What Happens to Coastal Birds?

El Niño can have a very different effect on birds along our coastline.

Normally, winds and ocean circulation help bring cold, nutrient-rich water toward the surface off California. This process, called upwelling, supports plankton and the small fish that many marine birds depend on. During El Niño, warmer surface waters and changes in ocean circulation can reduce the supply of nutrients reaching surface waters, affecting the marine food web.

When small fish become less abundant or move elsewhere, seabirds may have to travel farther to find food. Some may experience poorer body condition, reduced reproductive success, or increased mortality. Species with specialized diets or limited foraging ranges can be particularly vulnerable.

Scripps Institution of Oceanography has documented another interesting pattern during warm-water events: tropical seabirds, including boobies, may appear farther north than usual. San Diego birders may therefore encounter unusual seabird visitors while some familiar cool-water species become less abundant.

These changes are not guaranteed to occur in the same way during every El Niño, but they illustrate how a climate pattern in the tropical Pacific can affect the entire coastal food web.

Birds May Behave Differently Than We Expect

El Niño does not cause every bird to behave differently, and individual storms can matter as much as the seasonal pattern. Still, several changes are worth watching for in your backyard and along the coast:

• More feeder visits during storms: Birds may use feeders more often when rain or wind makes natural food difficult to access.
• More activity between storms: Birds may take advantage of breaks in the weather to feed intensively, replenish energy, and dry their feathers.
• Shifts in where birds forage: Ground-feeding birds may seek sheltered areas, while insect-eating birds may concentrate around vegetation where prey is available.
• Changes in local bird sightings: Rainfall can alter habitat conditions and food availability, while warmer ocean waters can bring unexpected marine species closer to Southern California.
• Different seasonal timing: Changes in food and habitat conditions may influence breeding or movement for some species, although the direction and magnitude of those changes are difficult to predict for an individual San Diego backyard.

The best approach is to observe rather than assume. Keep an eye on which species visit, how their numbers change, and whether those changes coincide with rain, wind, or breaks in the weather.

Preparing Your Backyard Bird Feeders for a Wet Winter

You do not need to overhaul your feeding routine simply because El Niño is coming. The most useful preparations are to keep food dry, maintain clean feeders, and make sure birds have reliable access to food and shelter.

Protect Seed From Rain

Wet seed can clump, spoil, and develop mold. Some molds produce toxins that can be dangerous to birds, and old food and accumulated droppings can also contribute to disease transmission.

Before the rainy season:

• Check feeder placement. Whenever possible, position feeders beneath an overhang or in a sheltered location that still gives birds a clear view of approaching predators.
• Consider weather-protective feeders. Feeders with roofs, rain guards, or covered seed compartments can help keep food dry. A roof alone will not protect seed if wind drives rain sideways.
• Look for good drainage. Tray feeders with screened bottoms allow water to escape more readily than solid-bottom trays. Remove wet seed and debris promptly.
• Avoid overfilling. Put out quantities that birds will consume relatively quickly rather than leaving a large supply exposed to repeated rain.

What Should You Do if Seed Gets Wet?

Check feeders after a substantial rain, especially if they are exposed to wind. Do not assume that wet seed is safe simply because it looks normal.

If seed is soggy, clumped, musty, discolored, or visibly moldy, discard it. Empty the feeder, remove old hulls and debris, wash it thoroughly, and allow it to dry completely before refilling. Do not simply add fresh seed on top of wet or spoiled food.

Clean feeders at least every two weeks, and more frequently during wet weather, heavy use, or whenever food or droppings accumulate. Clean up spilled seed and hulls beneath feeders as well.

Store extra seed in a cool, dry place in a sealed container. Avoid leaving bags of seed in damp garages or other locations where moisture can get inside.

Should You Change What You Feed?

For most backyard bird enthusiasts, there is no need to switch to a completely different seed mix just because El Niño is expected. Instead, focus on offering fresh food and adjusting quantities to match how quickly birds consume it.
 

• Sunflower seed: Black-oil sunflower and sunflower chips remain useful choices for many familiar backyard birds. Keep them dry and replenish them in smaller amounts when rainy weather is persistent.
• Nyjer seed: If you feed Lesser Goldfinches, continue offering fresh Nyjer in a suitable feeder. Check that the seed stays dry and does not cake or clog the feeding ports.
• Suet: Suet can provide concentrated energy for birds that eat it, including woodpeckers and some other insect-eating species.
• Hummingbird nectar: Rain does not mean hummingbird feeders should be neglected. Keep nectar fresh, clean feeders regularly, and replace nectar that becomes cloudy or contaminated. Do not add extra sugar or other ingredients in response to cold or wet weather.

The guiding principle is simple: fresh food offered consistently in manageable amounts is better than a feeder packed with food that remains wet for days.

Keep Water Available, Too

Rain may fill natural puddles and other water sources, but it does not eliminate the need for clean, accessible drinking and bathing water. A birdbath can still be useful during dry intervals and between storms.

Check that the basin drains properly and does not become a place where water remains stagnant. Refresh the water regularly, scrub away algae and debris, and keep the bath clean. During heavy rain, make sure the basin does not overflow into areas where water could damage your property or create a safety hazard.

Make Your Yard a Safe Place to Wait Out a Storm

Feeders are only one part of a bird-friendly backyard. Dense shrubs and trees give birds places to shelter from wind and rain, while native plants can provide natural food and habitat throughout the year.

Avoid unnecessary pruning before and during the rainy season, particularly when it would remove useful cover. Check that feeders and their supports are secure, and keep them away from windows where startled birds might collide with the glass. If severe weather damages trees or structures, wait until conditions are safe before making repairs.

A well-planned yard offers more than food: it provides shelter, natural foraging opportunities, and places to rest between storms.

Make This Winter a Season of Observation

Your backyard observations can help you appreciate how birds respond to a changing season—and make this winter an especially interesting time to watch the birds of San Diego.

 

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Bird of the Month: Belted Kingfisher


Male Belted Kingfisher, Santee Lakes Recreational Preserve, Santee

There is nothing quite like a Belted Kingfisher (Megaceryle alcyon). With its oversized head, shaggy crest, dagger-like bill, and unmistakable rattling call, this remarkable bird is one of North America's most entertaining water-loving birds. November is an excellent time for San Diego birdwatchers to look for Belted Kingfishers along rivers, lagoons, reservoirs, and coastal wetlands.

Appearance & Identification

• A big head and unruly crest. Measuring 11–14 inches long with a wingspan of 19–23 inches, the Belted Kingfisher has a compact body, short neck, and oversized head topped with a shaggy, pointed crest that gives it a perpetually surprised appearance.
• Beautiful blue-gray feathers. Its head, back, wings, and upper breast are slate blue-gray, contrasting with a white collar and belly. Fine white spotting decorates its wings and tail.
• Females are more colorful than males. Unlike most familiar birds, the female has an additional rusty-orange band across her lower breast and sides. Males have only a blue-gray breast band. Scientists have not conclusively determined why females evolved this extra coloration.
• A bill built for fishing. Its long, thick, straight bill tapers to a sharp point, perfectly suited for grabbing slippery prey. Young birds sometimes show rusty breast markings, making juvenile males resemble females.

Range, Habitat & San Diego Presence

• Found across North America. Belted Kingfishers breed throughout much of Canada and the United States, extending into parts of Mexico. Northern populations migrate south for winter, while some birds in milder climates remain year-round. Range Map
• At home wherever there is water. They inhabit rivers, streams, lakes, reservoirs, estuaries, and sheltered coastal waters. They favor places with visible fish and open perches, such as bare branches, snags, utility wires, or fence posts overlooking the water.
• San Diego is primarily wintering territory. According to the San Diego County Bird Atlas, Belted Kingfishers are mainly winter visitors, although a few occur year-round and breeding is rare.

What They Eat and How They Hunt

• Fish are the main course. Their diet consists primarily of small fish, including minnows, sticklebacks, and young trout. They also eat crayfish, aquatic insects, frogs, tadpoles, and occasionally small reptiles. More unusual prey includes small mammals, young birds, and even berries.
• Spectacular plunge divers. After spotting a fish, a kingfisher dives headfirst into the water, grabbing its prey with its powerful bill rather than spearing it. Remarkably, it closes its eyes during the final plunge, relying on the position of the prey it spotted just before entering.
• They can hover like helicopters. When no suitable perch is available, a kingfisher may hover above the water with rapid wingbeats while searching for fish.
• They beat their dinner into submission. After catching a fish, the kingfisher often returns to a perch and repeatedly strikes its catch against the branch. It then swallows the fish headfirst, allowing the fins to fold backward as it goes down.
• Clear water makes hunting easier. Kingfishers locate prey by sight, so muddy or highly turbid water can interfere with their ability to catch fish.

Nesting & Family Life

• They nest underground! Rather than building a traditional nest, Belted Kingfishers excavate tunnels into steep earthen banks. Both parents dig with their bills and push soil backward with their feet, although males generally do more of the excavation.
• Their tunnels are surprisingly long. A typical burrow extends 3–6 feet into the bank, ending in an enlarged nesting chamber. The tunnel usually slopes upward from the entrance to help prevent flooding.
• They lay large clutches. Females typically lay 5–8 glossy white eggs. Both parents incubate them for approximately 22–24 days and feed the helpless, featherless chicks after hatching.
• The chicks spend about a month underground. Young kingfishers remain in the burrow for approximately 27–29 days before emerging. Their parents continue feeding them for a time after they leave.
• Courtship can include a fish dinner. Males sometimes present fish to females during courtship. Pairs are generally monogamous for a breeding season but do not necessarily reunite the following year.

Songs & Sounds

• Their call sounds like a mechanical rattle. Belted Kingfishers produce a loud, rapid, chattering call resembling a small machine gun or vibrating rattle. It is one of the most recognizable sounds along North American waterways.
• Both sexes are vocal. Males and females call frequently, particularly when defending territory or responding to disturbances. They may also produce sharp screams when seriously threatened.
• You often hear them before seeing them. Their rattling calls carry considerable distances, frequently announcing a kingfisher flying along a river or shoreline before it comes into view.  You can listen to them here. 

Behavior & Personality

• Fiercely territorial and usually solitary. Belted Kingfishers defend productive fishing areas against others of their species. Along a stream, a breeding territory may extend approximately six-tenths of a mile. Outside the breeding season, individuals generally maintain separate territories.
• They put on quite a performance when disturbed. A threatened kingfisher may raise its crest, bob its body, spread its wings, or fly repeatedly along the water while calling loudly.
• They patrol their waterways. With strong, direct flight, kingfishers often follow the curves of rivers and shorelines, moving between favorite fishing spots. Although they sometimes tolerate human activity, repeated disturbance near feeding or nesting areas can drive them away.

Interesting & Unexpected Facts

• Their digestive systems change as they grow. Young kingfishers have unusually acidic stomachs that can digest fish bones, scales, and other hard materials. As they mature, they begin regurgitating indigestible remains as pellets. Scientists can examine these pellets to learn what the birds have been eating.
• They have special feet for digging. Two of their forward-pointing toes are partly fused, a condition called syndactyly, which helps them push soil out of their nesting tunnels.
• Some females migrate farther than males. In migrating populations, males often travel shorter distances, sometimes remaining on valuable fishing territories while females move farther south.
• They sometimes wander astonishing distances. Although primarily North American, Belted Kingfishers have been recorded in unexpected places, including Hawaii, the Galápagos Islands, Iceland, Greenland, the British Isles, and the Netherlands.
• They have an ancient history. Belted Kingfisher fossils dating back hundreds of thousands of years have been found in several U.S. states, while fossils from their broader genus date back approximately two million years.
• Human construction can occasionally help them. Sand pits, gravel excavations, and road cuts sometimes create the steep exposed banks needed for nesting, although habitat destruction and disturbance remain significant concerns.

How to Attract and Help Belted Kingfishers

Unlike traditional backyard birds, Belted Kingfishers are not attracted to seed, suet, or mealworm feeders. A property with a substantial fish-bearing pond is much more likely to attract one than a typical bird-feeding station.

There are several ways to help these remarkable birds:

• Protect clean waterways. Keep fertilizers, pesticides, motor oil, and other pollutants out of storm drains and waterways. Healthy aquatic ecosystems support the fish kingfishers depend on.
• Preserve natural shorelines. Protect streams, wetlands, and pond edges, including steep earthen banks that may provide nesting opportunities.
• Leave suitable fishing perches. Where safe, retain bare branches, snags, and other natural lookouts overlooking water.
• Give them space. Observe from a distance, particularly near nesting burrows, and support local wetland restoration and watershed conservation efforts.

Where to Look for Belted Kingfishers in San Diego

The following locations offer promising habitat for observing Belted Kingfishers, particularly during the cooler months:

• San Diego River: Accessible stretches with open water and exposed perches.
• San Elijo Lagoon: Tidal channels and lagoon waters.
• Buena Vista Lagoon: Shorelines and prominent branches overlooking the water.
• Lake Hodges: Sheltered coves and accessible shoreline areas.
• Tijuana River Estuary: Tidal channels, wetland edges, and open water.
• Santee Lakes Recreation Preserve: Lakeshores, exposed branches, and perches overlooking the water.

Kingfishers are often solitary and may travel considerable distances along a waterway. Listen for their distinctive rattling call and watch for a blue-gray bird perched above the water or flying rapidly along the shoreline.

Conservation: A Bird Worth Protecting

Although considered a species of relatively low conservation concern, Belted Kingfishers face challenges from habitat loss, altered waterways, and disturbance around nesting areas. Cornell reports that North American Breeding Bird Survey data indicated an estimated cumulative population decline of approximately 38% between 1966 and 2019.

Protecting San Diego's rivers, lagoons, estuaries, and reservoirs helps sustain these remarkable birds, along with the many other species that depend on healthy aquatic ecosystems.

Why We Love the Belted Kingfisher

Few birds combine such a memorable appearance with such extraordinary behavior. The Belted Kingfisher is a master fisherman, a fierce defender of its territory, an accomplished tunnel builder, and one of the most unmistakable voices of our waterways.

Its rattling call can transform an ordinary walk along a quiet pond into a memorable wildlife encounter. The next time you visit a San Diego lagoon, lake, or river, keep your eyes on the shoreline and your ears open. One of nature's most fascinating fishermen may already be watching the water.